UW Summer Sale Begins, Nike Earnings Breakdown, Markets for the week!
Everything you need to know about the upcoming week in three minutes or less
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Good evening!
Let’s see what is upcoming in the markets this week, and what happened last week quickly before the week begins!
But before we get to that, Unusual Whales is having a Summer Sale to start off summer for anyone wanting to try UW this season!
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Looking at the markets last week, SPY finished up +0.66% despite NVDA finally having a negative week, down 2.49%. Here is what that looked like in the heatmaps:
Now to earnings!
Here are the upcoming earnings this week, including the expected moves, EPS mean estimates, and notable details. See more at unusualwhales.com/earnings. We also updated our earnings breakdowns to show you historical moves and predictions! Here’s Nike’s, NKE, for example. You can see it here:
For Nike, you can see that NKE generally over the last nine quarters has come into earnings with its average move negatively, however this quarter NKE is coming into its earning higher than it was from its quarter starting point.
Over the last 9 quarters, NKE has incredibly volatile earnings with large implied moves (due to the price of the underlying), and it has bee difficult to establish any pattern in NKE’s earnings. Every quarter has had a different reaction. Over the last eight quarters, despite beating on EPS the last three times, NKE has moved outside its expected move 4 of 7 times, by a large margin, both positively and negatively .The expected move for the next earnings is 6.39%, in dollar terms $6.21 plus or minus. This is a smaller range than last time, where the actual move was barely contained within its large implied move.
You can see that generally NKE has outperformed in EPS and financials. How would straddles have performed if you took them? Well generally over the last eight earnings being long the straddle for one day (because of the actual move being larger than the implied move) worked the last three earnings, but on average, NKE had worked well when and selling volatility (short 1d strangle). Holding longer than the next day has not worked (longing the straddle one week out), but one week short straddle has worked great, as has 45 days out. As such, historically, if you are taking a play, you can buy a short straddle (sell the twenty delta move) in NKE and perform well, as long as you ignored the first day’s move after earnings.
Back to the full earnings week:
Earnings Date: 2024-06-24
3D Systems (DDD) - EPS Est: -$0.11, Expected Move: $0.68, Options Vol: 1305, Stock Vol: 4864433, OI: 90030
MoneyHero Ltd (MNY) - Premarket, EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $0.64, Options Vol: 823, Stock Vol: 687160, OI: 2766
Earnings Date: 2024-06-25
Carnival (CCL) - Premarket, EPS Est: -$0.01, Expected Move: $1.20, Options Vol: 64309, Stock Vol: 25164002, OI: 2064442
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) - EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $0.49, Options Vol: 53812, Stock Vol: 8878168, OI: 265077
FedEx (FDX) - Postmarket, EPS Est: $5.34, Expected Move: $15.55, Options Vol: 31298, Stock Vol: 3144499, OI: 225377
TD Synnex (SNX) - Premarket, EPS Est: $2.66, Expected Move: $7.73, Options Vol: 2669, Stock Vol: 2217717, OI: 14536
Earnings Date: 2024-06-26
Micron Technology (MU) - Postmarket, EPS Est: $0.38, Expected Move: $16.14, Options Vol: 397946, Stock Vol: 51189670, OI: 1578099
BlackBerry (BB) - Postmarket, EPS Est: -$0.06, Expected Move: $0.35, Options Vol: 24807, Stock Vol: 61713800, OI: 440544
SunPower (SPWR) - EPS Est: -$0.30, Expected Move: $0.39, Options Vol: 11951, Stock Vol: 7063955, OI: 235624
General Mills (GIS) - Premarket, EPS Est: $0.99, Expected Move: $2.21, Options Vol: 3740, Stock Vol: 6390763, OI: 90801
Wrap Technologies (WRAP) - EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $0.51, Options Vol: 2806, Stock Vol: 878221, OI: 50274
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) - Postmarket, EPS Est: $0.11, Expected Move: $1.87, Options Vol: 4902, Stock Vol: 2547143, OI: 41061
Paychex (PAYX) - Premarket, EPS Est: $1.10, Expected Move: $6.08, Options Vol: 1874, Stock Vol: 2828948, OI: 36200
Mereo Biopharma Group (MREO) - EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $0.95, Options Vol: 793, Stock Vol: 1126348, OI: 25119
AeroVironment (AVAV) - Postmarket, EPS Est: $0.21, Expected Move: $22.49, Options Vol: 2845, Stock Vol: 1355518, OI: 24883
National Beverage (FIZZ) - EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $3.46, Options Vol: 12063, Stock Vol: 522024, OI: 2480
McCormick & Co. (MKC) - Premarket, EPS Est: $0.59, Expected Move: $4.06, Options Vol: 2821, Stock Vol: 2280589, OI: 40146
Accolade (ACCD) - Postmarket, EPS Est: -$0.48, Expected Move: $1.47, Options Vol: 2168, Stock Vol: 1657519, OI: 29460
Mesoblast (MESO) - EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $1.58, Options Vol: 2041, Stock Vol: 220839, OI: 16452
Earnings Date: 2024-06-27
Nike (NKE) - Postmarket, EPS Est: $0.86, Expected Move: $6.21, Options Vol: 78154, Stock Vol: 15569463, OI: 960225
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) - Premarket, EPS Est: $0.68, Expected Move: $1.08, Options Vol: 53059, Stock Vol: 18510793, OI: 864451
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE) - EPS Est: N/A, Expected Move: $0.13, Options Vol: 44770, Stock Vol: 43947232, OI: 592466
Polestar Automotive Holding UK (PSNY) - EPS Est: -$0.13, Expected Move: $0.32, Options Vol: 1800, Stock Vol: 14301457, OI: 139815
On to economic events for the week:
Here is the economic calendar this week. More at unusualwhales.com/economic-calendar:
Monday, June 24:
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks in Rome at 4:00 PM.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee appears on TV at 9:30 PM.
Tuesday, June 25:
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak at 3:00 AM.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks in London at 8:00 PM.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 cities) for April is reported, previously at 7.4%.
Consumer confidence for May is expected to be 100, down from 102.
Wednesday, June 26:
Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 1:00 AM.
New home sales for May are forecasted at 650K, up from 634K.
Thursday, June 27:
Durable-goods orders excluding transportation for May, previously at 0.4%.
Durable-goods orders for May are expected to be -0.6%, down from 0.6%.
GDP (2nd revision) for Q1 is forecasted to remain at 1.3%.
Initial jobless claims for June are expected to be 240K, up slightly from 238K.
Pending home sales for May are forecasted at 1.0%, recovering from -7.7%.
Friday, June 28:
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks in Paris at 7:00 PM.
Core PCE year-over-year, expected to be 2.6%, down from 2.8%.
Core PCE index for May is forecasted at 0.1%, down from 0.2%.
PCE year-over-year for May, forecasted to be 2.6%, down from 2.7%.
PCE index for May, expected to be 0.0%, down from 0.3%.
Personal spending for May is anticipated to be 0.3%, up from 0.2%.
Personal income for May is expected to be 0.4%, up from 0.3%.
Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June is expected to be 40, up from 35.4.
Consumer sentiment (final) for June is forecasted at 65.9, slightly up from 65.6.
Saturday, June 29:
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak at 1:00 AM.
Thank you as always for reading and have a great week!
Also finally, we are having a Summer day sale to kick off summer for anyone wanting to try our all encompassing trading software. Get 15% off any tier on Unusual Whales, and 20% off when you upgrade a tier!
NOTE: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for investment decisions. Check terms on site for full terms. Agree to terms before considering this information.