Iran Israel Conflict, Earnings Week begins, and Inflation concerns remerge
Everything happening in the markets in three minutes or less
Good evening!
To start off, before everything, there was an escalation between Israel and Iran over the weekend. Things are developing every minute and hour. Please verify what you see first before sharing it.
With that being said, let’s see what is upcoming in the markets this week, and what happened last week quickly before the week begins!
A quick update on the Unusual Whales side. We just updated our market tide and net flow charts features to be able to split holdings for QQQ and SPY. You should try the feature today if you use market tide.
Back to it, the market had large moves this week, with VIX jumping, SPY falling 2%, rallying the next day, and then finishing the week down 1.62%. Here is what that looked like in the chart:
In other news this week (it was a significant news week):
- Taxes are due tomorrow (Mark Cuban said he is going to pay $288,000,000.00)
- Speaker Mike Johnson says he will push for aid to Israel, Ukraine this week
- “It is clear Israel will respond, the question is when and at what scale, an Israeli official said to NBC news about Israel responding to Iran’s attack
-US tells Israel it won’t join counter-strike on Iran, per Politico.
-Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Irans top military officer, said Iran has no intention of continuing its aerial campaign against Israel, according to state-run news agency IRNA and WSJ
- Biden supposedly has informed Israeli Prime minister Netanyahu that US will oppose any Israeli counterattack against Iran, per Axios
- Two Israeli officials say Iran launched 185 drones and 36 cruise missiles. Most of the launches were from Iran, though a small portion came from Iraq and Yemen. Iran also launched 110 surface-to-surface missiles, per the NYT
- The largest office building in St. Louis has sold for $3.5 million, per WSJ. In 2006, it sold for $205 million.
- Elon Musk’s AI startup X AI is looking to raise up to $4 billion in a deal that would value the company at $18 billion
-None of Forbes’ billionaires under 30 are self-made for first time in 15 years
-JPMorgan, $JPM, CEO Jamie Dimon says he worries geopolitical events and U.S. political polarization "may very well be creating risks that could eclipse anything since World War II."
- The White House has announced its canceling an additional $7.4 billion in student debt
- Baltimore plans to sell boarded-up houses for $1 each in an attempt to revive neighborhoods that have been plagued by crime and disrepair,
- Marjorie Taylor Greene bought up to $50,000 of $DWAC, which is now trading as $DJT, in Oct 2021. She refused to say what happened to the shares or if she sold. Once she does, you can follow her portfolio at unusualwhales.com/portfolios
-Bitcoin fell nearly 15% from the Iran-Israel conflict, halvening is approaching likely this week
- China has mandated its telecom carriers, including China Mobile, to eliminate foreign chips from their equipment by 2027, impacting major American chip companies like Intel, $INTC, and AMD, AMD 0.00%↑
- The percentage of companies that have defaulted on their debt more than once has reached its second highest level since 2008, according to a new report from S&P Global Ratings.
- Vietnamese billionaire, Truong My Lan, was sentenced to death for $44 billion fraud.
-Cathie Wood's $ARKV has said that it has invested in OpenAI (4% of the fund) and Anthropic (5% of the fund).
- Sam Bankman-Fried has filed a notice of his intent to appeal his conviction and 25 year sentence for his role in the collapse of FTX
- Morgan Stanley's, $MS, wealth-management unit probed by multiple federal regulators, per WSJ.
- Apple, $AAPL, plans to revamp entire Mac line with AI-focused M4 chips,
- Although not financially related, OJ Simpson, the former famous NFL star, has died.
- SEC has moved to sue Uniswap
- Biden says he still sees rate cut before year’s end, but current inflation data may delay a rate cut by a month on April 10th
- The Bank of Canada has once again kept rates where they were, pausing them at 5%
- Intel, $INTC, unveils new AI accelerator processor called Gaudi 3, which it says outperforms Nvidia's H100 chip
- New Boeing, $BA, whistleblower to testify at April 17 Senate hearing, per Bloomberg
-US 30-year average mortgage rates have hit 7% again
- Two days ago, someone bought $500,000 Zoetis, $ZTS, $160 puts expiring 04/19/2024. Today, the stock dropped at most 10%, due to side effects of its drug being released. They have not exited, yet, but have turned $500,000 into $10 million. Someone always knows. On Unusual Whales, you can follow these type of trades easily. For example, check $ZTS flow alerts over last two weeks. Notice anything? All downside. Sometimes the market gives you gifts, take em. Link to tools used
With the past understood, let's look at next week!
Here are the upcoming earnings this week, including the implied moves, EPS mean estimates, and notable details. See more at unusualwhales.com/earnings
April 15, 2024
Schwab Charles (SCHW) expects an EPS of $0.77 and an implied move of $1.28.
Goldman Sachs Group (GS) expects an EPS of $8.54 and an implied move of $13.07.
HDFC Bank (HDB) expects an EPS of $0.71 and an implied move of $2.13.
M&T Bank (MTB) expects an EPS of $3.13 and an implied move of $6.22.
April 16, 2024
Bank of America (BAC) expects an EPS of $0.77 and an implied move of $1.28.
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) expects an EPS of -$0.53 and an implied move of $3.21.
Morgan Stanley (MS) expects an EPS of $1.69 and an implied move of $3.72.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) expects an EPS of $2.64 and an implied move of $3.66.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) expects an EPS of $6.65 and an implied move of $17.51.
PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) expects an EPS of $3.09 and an implied move of $5.33.
Ericsson LM Telephone (ERIC) expects an EPS of $0.05 and an implied move of $0.30.
Bank of New York Mellon (BK) expects an EPS of $1.19 and an implied move of $2.44.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) expects an EPS of $1.62 and an implied move of $4.59.
Northern Trust (NTRS) expects an EPS of $1.47 and an implied move of $3.89.
Hunt J B Transport Services (JBHT) expects an EPS of $1.53 and an implied move of $7.95.
Omnicom Group (OMC) expects an EPS of $1.52 and an implied move of $3.53.
April 17, 2024
Kinder Morgan (KMI) expects an EPS of $0.34 and an implied move of $0.40.
Alcoa (AA) expects an EPS of -$0.50 and an implied move of $2.16.
US Bancorp (USB) expects an EPS of $0.89 and an implied move of $1.81.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) expects an EPS of $0.62 and an implied move of $2.32.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) expects an EPS of $0.95 and an implied move of $3.81.
CSX (CSX) expects an EPS of $0.45 and an implied move of $1.13.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) expects an EPS of $2.85 and an implied move of $51.22.
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) expects an EPS of $0.75 and an implied move of $1.55.
SL Green Realty (SLG) expects an EPS of $2.17 and an implied move of $3.63.
Vinfast Auto Ltd (VFS) expects an EPS of -$0.25 and an implied move of $0.28.
April 18, 2024
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) expects an EPS of $1.29 and an implied move of $8.12.
Netflix (NFLX) expects an EPS of $4.49 and an implied move of $47.19.
Blackstone (BX) expects an EPS of $0.98 and an implied move of $5.74.
Nokia (NOK) expects an EPS of $0.06 and an implied move of $0.25.
KeyCorp (KEY) expects an EPS of $0.23 and an implied move of $0.78.
Ally Financial (ALLY) expects an EPS of $0.36 and an implied move of $2.08.
Comerica (CMA) expects an EPS of $1.13 and an implied move of $2.85.
Horton D R (DHI) expects an EPS of $3.09 and an implied move of $7.35.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) expects an EPS of $1.09 and an implied move of $21.80.
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) expects an EPS of $1.70 and an implied move of $3.83.
Infosys (INFY) expects an EPS of $0.17 and an implied move of $0.98.
Alaska Air Group (ALK) expects an EPS of -$1.09 and an implied move of $2.04.
PPG Industries (PPG) expects an EPS of $1.86 and an implied move of $4.83.
Iridium Communications (IRDM) expects an EPS of $0.16 and an implied move of $2.76.
Elevance Health (ELV) expects an EPS of $10.52 and an implied move of $19.85.
Provident Financial Services (PFS) expects an EPS of $0.40 and an implied move of $1.11.
Home Bancshares (HOMB) expects an EPS of $0.46 and an implied move of $1.16.
April 19, 2024
Schlumberger (SLB) expects an EPS of $0.75 and an implied move of $1.94.
American Express (AXP) expects an EPS of $3.00 and an implied move of $10.79.
Procter & Gamble (PG) expects an EPS of $1.42 and an implied move of $4.01.
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) expects an EPS of $0.25 and an implied move of $0.55.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) expects an EPS of $0.71 and an implied move of $1.38.
Regions Financial (RF) expects an EPS of $0.46 and an implied move of $0.85.
Here is the economic calendar this week. More at unusualwhales.com/economic-calendar:
Monday, April 15:
New York Fed President John Williams makes a TV appearance at 5:30 AM.
Retail sales excluding autos for March are expected to be 0.5%, up from 0.3%.
U.S. retail sales for March are projected at 0.3%, down from 0.6%.
The Empire State manufacturing survey for April is forecasted to improve to -10.0 from -20.9.
The Home Builder Confidence Index for April is expected to remain steady at 51.
Business inventories for February are anticipated to be 0.4%, up from 0.0%.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks at 5:00 PM.
Tuesday, April 16:
Building permits and housing starts for March are both forecasted to remain steady at 1.5 million.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at 6:00 AM.
Capacity utilization for March is expected to be 78.5%, up from 78.3%.
Industrial production for March is anticipated at 0.4%, up from 0.1%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 10:15 AM.
Wednesday, April 17:
The Fed Beige Book is set to be released at 11:00 AM.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 2:30 PM.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 4:15 PM.
Thursday, April 18:
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April is expected to be 0, up from 3.2.
Initial jobless claims for April are forecasted at 210K, slightly down from 211K.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks again at 6:05 AM.
New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 6:15 AM.
U.S. leading economic indicators for March are expected to be 0.0%, slightly down from 0.1%.
Existing home sales for March are anticipated to be 4.1 million, down from 4.4 million.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks twice, at 8:00 AM and again at 2:45 PM.
Friday, April 19:
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 7:30 AM.
Thank you as always for reading! Have a great week!
PS: We added a bunch of new portfolios last week to unusualwhales.com/portfolios
NOTE: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for investment decisions. Check terms on site for full terms. Agree to terms before considering this information.