GameStop, GME earnings breakdown, markets for the week, and OUR SALE ENDS TOMORROW!
Everything you need to know about the markets in three minutes or less
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Hi there!
A quick note before I break down the markets. OUR SALE ENDS TOMORROW for our financial software. This is before we increase prices due to increase data feeds! HOWEVER, any user who gets a subscription beforehand will be grandfathered in at their OLD price, with no additional costs.
We are increasing prices after Sept 16th because we are adding two new data feeds and hiring engineers. Any old users will be grandfathered in (not have to pay more). To help interested users also get a reduced subscription beforehand, we have a sale that ENDS TOMORROW AT MIDNIGHT!!!!, where you get 15% off. Sorry for the price increases, but we are still the most affordable and more full-offered platform for under $50! Here is the sale link, if interested: link
Now, let’s see what is upcoming in the markets this upcoming week, and what happened this week quickly before the week begins!
Looking at the markets last week, SPY is was flat on the week, with most nontech rising while NVDA fell nearly 8% for the week! Here is what that looked like in the heatmaps:
Now to earnings. Let’s break down GameStop, GME earnings, which you can see a full breakdown on Unusual Whales at https://unusualwhales.com/stock/GME/earnings.
GameStop earnings have been hard to predict, but it generally has a runup, fall, but huge spikes weeks before earnings that make moves have incredibly high IV. This is despite increasingly better earnings GameStop has been reporting. Let’s dig in.
For GameStop, you can see that GME generally over the last ten quarters has come into earnings with its average move positively, but on average only one day before earnings. This is because people anticipate a huge move. The days and weeks before, over the last quarters, has generally had negative price action for GME. You can see that this quarter it is following the exact pattern as before, being slightly more positive than usual before earnings.
Over the last 9 quarters, GME has incredibly volatile earnings with large implied moves (due to the price of the underlying), however market markers have been very good at pricing the last moves, with the moves falling within the expected price move 5/7 times. At the moment, the Implied Move (expected move) for GME is quite high, at 14.42% (or $3.45 in dollar terms). Due to the large expected move, you can see that there is a lot of premium in GME options right now, where buying contracts might pose a huge risk of IV crush. On the larger historical earnings expected moves, GME has generally finished inside its bands, while rallying significantly in the following days.
One interesting thing that happened in GME, among many, is that Roaring Kitty came back, followed by some interesting option activity. For example:
One $GME whale on Friday bought $2 million in the $GME 22.50 calls for 09/13/2024 at 11:42 EST. This caused net premium to explode. Roaring Kitty then tweeted at 12pm EST. The whale then exited fully as traders followed, for 35% gain in thirty minutes, causing net premium to fully revert. GameStop's option market is being unusual, heavily. You can find more GameStop options activity at unusualwhales.com/stock/GME/overview.
You can see that overwhelmingly GME has outperformed in EPS and financials recently. How would straddles have performed if you took them? You must understand GME’s one day to two week price movement after earnings has been all over the place. Generally, the one week long straddle has performed poorly only 8/10 times, meaning it was better to sell volatility into GME earnings. The one week short straddle worked 6/10 times, but the one day short straddle worked 7/10, showing most whales sell volatility and get out quickly out of GME after earnings day.
However, GME’s moves are unpredictable. You can once again see more at https://unusualwhales.com/stock/GME/earnings
Here are the upcoming earnings this week, including the expected moves, EPS mean estimates, and notable details. See more at unusualwhales.com/earnings. We also updated our earnings breakdowns to show you historical moves and predictions!
Report Date: September 9, 2024
Oracle (ORCL) expects an EPS of 1.05, with an anticipated stock price move of $9.60. It has an open interest of 512,355 and a stock volume of 11,154,251.
Rubrik Inc (RBRK) forecasts an EPS of -0.96, with an expected move of $4.27 in the stock price. The open interest is 21,144, and the stock volume is 1,041,589.
Virco Mfg Corporation (VIRC), with an unknown reporting time, anticipates an EPS of 1.00 and expects a stock price move of $2.10. It has an open interest of 5,465 and a stock volume of 188,964.
Report Date: September 10, 2024
GameStop (GME) expects an EPS of -0.01, with a stock price move of $3.45 expected. The open interest stands at 936,996, with a stock volume of 23,879,246.
Petco Health & Wellness Company (WOOF) forecasts an EPS of -0.08, with an expected move of $0.55. The open interest is 61,751, and the stock volume is 2,920,679.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) anticipates an EPS of 0.87, with a stock price move of $4.36 expected. It has an open interest of 46,137 and a stock volume of 1,451,404.
Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO), reporting premarket, expects an EPS of 1.96 and an anticipated stock price move of $4.63. The open interest is 45,812, and the stock volume is 1,636,696.
Report Date: September 11, 2024
B Riley Financial (RILY), with an unknown reporting time, does not provide an EPS estimate, but expects a move of $0.98 in the stock price. It has an open interest of 400,212 and a stock volume of 1,831,427.
Manchester United (MANU), reporting premarket, forecasts an EPS of -0.22, with a stock price move of $1.02 expected. The open interest is 35,532, and the stock volume is 303,127.
Report Date: September 12, 2024
Kroger (KR), reporting premarket, expects an EPS of 0.91, with an anticipated stock price move of $2.83. It has an open interest of 280,580 and a stock volume of 6,631,890.
Adobe (ADBE) anticipates an EPS of 3.63, with a significant stock price move of $40.03 expected. The open interest is 268,326, and the stock volume is 2,073,554.
Big Lots (BIG), reporting premarket, forecasts an EPS of -3.69, with a move of $0.21 expected in the stock price. The open interest totals 154,074, with a stock volume of 10,885,679.
RH (RH) anticipates an EPS of 1.54, with a significant move of $28.16 expected in the stock price. The open interest stands at 74,872, with a stock volume of 857,220.
Children's Place (PLCE), with an unknown reporting time, does not provide an EPS estimate, but an implied move of $0.62 is expected. The open interest is 38,616, and the stock volume is 376,947.
Signet Jewelers (SIG), reporting premarket, expects an EPS of 1.13, with a move of $7.65 anticipated. The open interest is 28,887, with a stock volume of 1,175,598.
Caleres (CAL), also reporting premarket, forecasts an EPS of 1.21, with an expected stock price move of $3.59. It has an open interest of 23,549 and a stock volume of 705,499.
Here is the economic calendar this week. More at unusualwhales.com/economic-calendar:
Monday, September 9:
Wholesale inventories for July are reported at 7:00 AM, with previous data not specified.
Consumer credit for August is expected to be $8.9 billion, reported at 12:00 PM.
Tuesday, September 10:
NFIB optimism index for August is reported at 3:00 AM, with a previous value of 93.7.
Wednesday, September 11:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, previously at 0.2%, will be reported at 5:30 AM.
Core CPI year over year and Core CPI for August, previously at 3.2% and 0.2% respectively, also at 5:30 AM.
CPI year over year, previously at 2.9%, will be reported at the same time.
Thursday, September 12:
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) year over year, previously at 3.3%, and PPI year over year, previously at 2.2%, will be reported at 5:30 AM.
Core PPI for August, expected to be 0.3%, and the overall Producer Price Index for August, expected to be 0.1%, also at 5:30 AM.
Initial jobless claims for September will be reported at 5:30 AM, with previous data not specified.
Monthly U.S. federal budget for August is scheduled for 11:00 AM.
Friday, September 13:
Import price index excluding fuel for August and the overall import price index for August, both expected to be 0.1%, will be reported at 5:30 AM.
Preliminary consumer sentiment for September will be reported at 7:00 AM, with previous data not specified.
Thank you as always for reading and have a great week!
Also, as a reminder, we are having a Back-To-School sale before we increase our prices in September, for anyone wanting to try our all encompassing trading software. Get 15% off any tier on Unusual Whales, and 20% off when you upgrade a tier! We also just built a portfolio analyzer, trading journal, dividend tracker, and all around great software for you to see how you trade. THE SALE ENDS TOMORROW!
NOTE: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for investment decisions. Check terms on site for full terms. Agree to terms before considering this information.