FOMC rate pause, upcoming PCE, GME earnings, Easter Sale, Pelosi trades again, and more!
Everything you need to know about the markets in three minutes or less.
Good evening!
Let’s see what is upcoming in the markets this week, and what happened last week quickly before the week begins!
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This week is packed with events, and we have the most important macro event this month with the FOMC decision! Given the recent hot inflation reports, Fed futures traders believe there is a 98% chance the Fed keeps rates the same. At the beginning of the year, traders believed the Fed would begin to cut rates by March at this meeting. We have a Twitter Space with market experts this week before FOMC, if you want to join or have questions.
This was an important week for the market, with FOMC decision. What was announced was spectacular: a rate pause, which was expected, but Powell declared potential for decline in QT, which the markets rallied hard as a result. In fact, the $SPY rose 1.38% this week, with tech rebounding hard from last week.. The SPY, Nasdaq, QQQ and others all hit ATHs as a result. Here is the weekly heatmap.
In other news this week:
- Pelosi's portfolio hit ATH, and she bought $5 million of a private analytics company called Databricks
- 78% of equity options traded worldwide were traded in India last year
- An inverted yield curve no longer a reliable indicator for recession, said 22 of 34 strategists per Reuters
- The DOJ has now officially sued Apple $AAPL in an antitrust case (their third) saying that Apple has a monopoly over the phone market that harmed the industry, per CNBC. U.S. Justice Department official does not rule out seeking breakup of Apple, $AAPL, says 'structural relief' a possibility
-The US has announced an $8.5 billion preliminary agreement with Intel, the largest CHIPS investment yet.
- Reddit IPOed. You can chart technicals on REDDIT here: https://unusualwhales.com/flow/stock_chart?symbol=RDDT
- El Salvador says it’s sitting on an $84 million profit after bitcoin’s record-breaking run
- France is preparing a military contingent of 2,000 troops to be sent to Ukraine, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin said per Reuters.
- Unusual Whales is once again mentioned on the Joe Rogan podcast with Shane Gillis & Ari Shaffer! They talk about our 2023 Congress report and politician trading!
- 47% of parents still financially support adult children, per CNBC.
-The US Supreme Court has allowed Texas to start arresting and deporting people who enter the country illegally, refusing to block a new law that the Biden administration says will be an unprecedented intrusion on federal power to set immigration policy.
-FOMC rate pause continued
Chinese shopping app Temu spent $2B on Facebook, Instagram, $META, ads, per NYP.Apple, $AAPL, buys AI startup DarwinAI
-Bank of Japan has decided to raise interest rates for the first time since 2007, scrapping yield curve control.
-Nvidia’s board members collectively cashed in on nearly $300 million worth of holdings this year, per NYP:
Boeing, $BA, whistleblower John Barnett was planning to drive home to Louisiana after his deposition on Friday 3/8 before Boeing lawyers asked him to stay one more day to finish his testimony. His body was found on the morning of 3/9, per FORTUNE.
Senator Tommy Tuberville has bought up to $100,000 of Star Bulk Carriers stock, $SBLK. Star Bulk Carriers has major focus in shipping, particularly forestry and related objects. Tuberville sits on the Senate Committee of Forestry, as well on Agriculture.
Congressman William Keating appears to have sold Boeing, $BA, stock on Feb 28, 2024. The DOJ announced it was investigating Boeing on Feb 29, 2024. He sold the DAY before it was reported that DOJ was investigating Boeing. He sold up to $65,000, per filings. To see all politicians' trades and portfolios, check Unusual Whales: http://unusualwhales.com/portfolios
With the past understood, let's look at next week!
Here are the upcoming earnings this week, including the expected and implied moves, EPS mean estimates, call and put volumes, open interest (OI), stock volume, and notable details. See more at unusualwhales.com/earnings
March 26 Reports:
GameStop (GME): Expected post-market. EPS mean estimate: $0.25. Call volume: 50,608. Put volume: 21,576.
McCormick & Co (MKC): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 4.10%. EPS mean estimate: $0.58. Call volume: 1,645. Put volume: 521.
GDS Holdings (GDS): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 1.76%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.38. Call volume: 1,958. Put volume: 250.
nCino (NCNO): Expected post-market. Expected move: 2.76%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.01. Call volume: 105. Put volume: 16.
Concentrix (CNXC): Expected post-market. Expected move: 7.14%. EPS mean estimate: $2.36. Call volume: 654. Put volume: 82.
Progress Software (PRGS): Expected post-market. Expected move: 3.61%. EPS mean estimate: $0.92. Call volume: 3,235. Put volume: 3,076.
TD SYNNEX (SNX): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 5.99%. EPS mean estimate: $2.71. Call volume: 589. Put volume: 90.
Vera Therapeutics (VERA): Expected with unknown time. Expected move: 5.38%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.53. Call volume: 78. Put volume: 45.
March 27 Reports:
Carnival (CCL): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 1.42%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.17. Call volume: 74,525. Put volume: 15,591.
RH (RH): Expected post-market. EPS mean estimate: $1.72. Call volume: 4,532. Put volume: 5,624.
Paychex (PAYX): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 5.95%. EPS mean estimate: $1.36. Call volume: 796. Put volume: 904.
Sprinklr (CXM): Expected post-market. Expected move: 1.68%. EPS mean estimate: $0.03. Call volume: 164. Put volume: 19.
Braze (BRZE): Expected post-market. Expected move: 6.91%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.31. Call volume: 1,867. Put volume: 29.
Cintas (CTAS): Expected pre-market. EPS mean estimate: $3.56. Call volume: 199. Put volume: 160.
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF): Expected post-market. Expected move: 2.25%. EPS mean estimate: $0.76. Call volume: 126. Put volume: 56.
MillerKnoll (MLKN): Expected post-market. Expected move: 3.12%. EPS mean estimate: $0.44. Call volume: 60. Put volume: 126.
Carnival UK (CUK): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 2.12%. EPS mean estimate: unknown. Call volume: 142. Put volume: 3.
March 28 Reports:
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): Expected pre-market. Expected move: 1.41%. EPS mean estimate: $0.82. Call volume: 64,280. Put volume: 19,001.
Biohaven (BHVN): Expected move: 10.99%. EPS mean estimate: -$1.41. Call volume: 449. Put volume: 164.
Semtech (SMTC): Expected post-market. Expected move: 3.42%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.15. Call volume: 1,358. Put volume: 1,031.
March 29 Reports:
Lithium Americas (LAC): Expected move: 1.19%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.03. Call volume: 8,475. Put volume: 1,418.
Disc Medicine (IRON): Expected move: 23.03%. EPS mean estimate: -$0.75. Call
Here is the economic calendar this week. More at unusualwhales.com/economic-calendar:
Here's a concise summary of the U.S. economic reports and notable events for the specified week, presented day by day:
Monday, March 25:
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 5:25 AM.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 6:05 AM.
New home sales for February are forecasted to be 675,000.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 7:30 AM.
Tuesday, March 26:
Durable goods orders excluding transportation for February are awaited, with the previous figure at 0.3%.
Durable goods orders for February are expected to rise by 1.0%, following a decline of 6.2%.
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities in January is anticipated, with the previous value at 6.1%.
Consumer confidence for March is forecasted to be slightly down at 106.5 from 106.7.
Wednesday, March 27:
Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 3:00 PM.
Thursday, March 28:
The second revision of Q1 GDP is expected to remain steady at 3.2%.
Initial jobless claims for March are anticipated at 214,000.
The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for March is expected to increase slightly to 45 from 44.
Final consumer sentiment for March is forecasted to remain unchanged at 76.5.
Pending home sales for February are expected to show improvement at 1.0%, following a decrease of 4.9%.
Friday, March 29:
Advanced reports for wholesale inventories, retail inventories, and U.S. trade balance in goods for February are due.
Core PCE and PCE year-over-year for February are anticipated at 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively, with the previous figures at 2.8% and 2.4%.
The Core PCE index and PCE index for February are expected at 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.
Personal spending for February is forecasted at 0.5%, up from 0.2%, and personal income is expected to rise by 0.4%, down from 1.0%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 8:30 AM.
Thank you as always for reading! Have a great week!
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